Analysis of market prices for cold and hot rolled coil plates in June

Since June, the prices of cold and hot rolled coil plates in China have continued to rise, and the market trading situation is still good. Steel traders generally hold a cautious and optimistic attitude towards the future market. Relevant scholars predict that the market prices of cold and hot rolled coils will steadily increase in the short term.

Taking the Shanghai market as an example, data shows that from June 1st to June 16th, the price of hot-rolled coil plates in the Shanghai market increased from 3790 yuan/ton to 3920 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 130 yuan/ton; The price of cold rolled coil plates has increased from 4290 yuan/ton to 4400 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 110 yuan/ton.

carbon steel plates

Scholars predict that in the short term, the fundamentals of the cold and hot rolled coil market will exhibit the following operational characteristics:

First, the strength of downstream terminal Effective demand is expected to increase. It is reported that since June, the production and sales situation of the automotive and home appliance manufacturing industry, which consumes a large amount of cold and hot rolled coil plates, has improved, and production and sales have increased.

Secondly, there is not much supply pressure in the cold and hot rolled coil market. According to the data of China Iron and Steel Association, in the first ten days of June, the statistics focused on the cumulative production of 22.3107 million tons of crude steel, 20.356 million tons of pig iron and 20.6354 million tons of steel by iron and steel enterprises. Among them, the daily average production of crude steel reached 2.2311 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.48% and a decrease of 2.52%; The daily average production of pig iron reached 2.0036 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.56% and a decrease of 2.37%; The daily average production of steel reached 2.0635 million tons, a decrease of 4.23% year-on-year and 4.99% year-on-year.

In terms of inventory, as of early June, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities nationwide reached 9.89 million tons, a decrease of 420000 tons compared to the previous month, a decrease of 4.1%, and the social inventory continued to decline; An increase of 2.37 million tons or 31.5% compared to the beginning of this year. From a specific variety perspective, as of early June, the national social inventory of hot-rolled coil plates reached 2 million tons, a decrease of 1.0% year-on-year; The social inventory of cold rolled coil plates reached 1.18 million tons, a decrease of 0.8% year-on-year.

Thirdly, the prices of steel raw materials and fuels have rebounded, and the platform for steel production costs has moved up. Recently, the prices of iron ore, coke, scrap steel and other steel raw materials have fluctuated and increased. According to statistics, from June 1st to June 16th, the Platts iron ore price index increased from $104.4 per ton to $115.4 per ton, an increase of $11 per ton; The price of scrap steel in Tangshan, Hebei has increased from 2490 yuan/ton to 2570 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; The price of iron concentrate powder in Tangshan, Hebei has increased from 955 yuan/ton to 985 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton; The price of iron ore at Port of Rizhao in Shandong Province rose from 805 yuan/ton to 850 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton.

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